NBA Prop Bets: Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers (December 27, 2025)
The Indiana Pacers (6-25) face the Miami Heat (16-15) at Kaseya Center. Let's take a look at the NBA Prop Bets for Saturday's matchup. The Heat opened as 8.5-point favorites but the spread has since moved to 6.5, leaving the Heat at -270 and Pacers at +220. The total points line is set at 233.5, with OVER at -108 and UNDER at -112, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 120-114 Miami.
- The Pacers (-108) have a 15-16-0 ATS record this season, while the Heat (-112) hold a record of 16-14-1.
- The Pacers have a 12-19-0 O/U record this season (meaning 12 games have gone over the total points line and 19 have gone under). The Heat have a 14-16-1 O/U record.
Scoring Insights
- The Pacers are averaging 109.6 points per game this season (30th in the league). Comparatively, the Heat are averaging +9.9 more at 119.5 points (9th).
- Defensively, the Pacers are giving up 118.4 points per game this season (23rd in the league), while the Heat are giving up an average of 117.4 points (17th).
Game Style
What do the stats tell us about the style of basketball these teams are playing this season?
Pace
- The Pacers currently rank 15th for pace this season, recording 100.1 possessions per game. Alternatively, the Heat sit 1st on that scale with 104.1 possessions per contest.
Field Goal Split
- Looking at field goal splits, 41.0% of the Pacers' field goal attempts come from three point range (18th in the league), leaving 59.0% from two. Meanwhile, the Heat's opponents are taking 43.7% of their attempts from three (29th) and 56.3% from two.
- Comparatively, Miami takes 37.7% of shots from three (21st), leaving 62.3% from two, while Indiana's opponents are attempting 39.1% from three (3rd) and 60.9% from two.
Beyond the Arc
- In terms of made three-pointers, the Pacers are shooting an underwhelming 32.5% from deep in 2025/26 (30th in the NBA), compared to the Heat who are making 36.5% of their attempts (9th).
- On the opposite end, Indiana is holding opponents to 34.2% of their three-point attempts (4th), while Miami's opponents are hitting 34.4% of their shots (6th).
Ball Protection
- The Pacers are committing 13.8 turnovers per game this season, ranking 5th in the league, while the Heat are forcing 15.8 turnovers (7th).
- Flipping that script, Indiana is forcing 14.2 turnovers (21st), while Miami is committing 14.1 (T9th).
Crashing the Boards
- Indiana is pulling down 43.5 rebounds per game this season (21st in the league), including 11.7 offensive boards (14th). Conversely, Miami's opponents are averaging 47.8 rebounds (29th), 12.5 of which have come on the offensive end (27th).
- Meanwhile, the Heat are averaging an impressive 45.6 rebounds (6th) and 10.6 offensive rebounds (21st), while the Pacers are allowing 47.6 and 11.6, ranking 27th and 16th.
Back-to-backs
- Notably, the Pacers are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set.
- Indiana holds a 2-3 W-L record on the second leg of a back-to-back this season, as well as a 3-2-0 ATS record and 0-5-0 O/U record.
- Additionally, Miami has a 6-10 W-L record, 6-10-0 ATS record and 7-9-0 O/U record against teams playing the second leg of a back-to-back since the beginning of last season.
- Notably, the Heat are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set.
- Notably, the Pacers and Heat are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set.
First Quarter Winner
Indiana is +142 to win the first quarter, while Miami is -170. Here are their first quarter records in 2025/26.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | Last 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 10-20-1 | 7-10-0 | 3-10-1 | 3-2-0 | 7-18-1 | 5-5-0 |
| Miami | 18-12-1 | 8-7-0 | 10-5-1 | 11-4-0 | 7-8-1 | 4-5-1 |
First Half Winner
Indiana is +164 to win the first half and Miami is -198. Here are their first half records in 2025/26.
| Total | Home | Road | Favorite | Underdog | Last 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 10-21-0 | 6-11-0 | 4-10-0 | 3-2-0 | 7-19-0 | 4-6-0 |
| Miami | 19-11-1 | 12-3-0 | 7-8-1 | 11-4-0 | 8-7-1 | 5-4-1 |
HT/FT
Indiana is +300 to complete the HT/FT double. Conversely, Miami is -160.
- The Pacers have completed the HT/FT double in 16.1% of games this season, while the Heat have completed the HT/FT double in 48.4% of games.
To Go To Overtime
Saturday's matchup is +1200 to go to overtime.
- The Pacers have played in one game that went to overtime this season, while the Heat have also appeared in one.
Both Teams 110+
- Both teams have scored 110+ points in 12 of Indiana's 31 games this season. Meanwhile, 18 of Miami's 31 games have seen both squads reach that number.
Last Time They Met
Miami recorded a 125-120 victory over Indiana at Kaseya Center when these teams last met on February 28, 2025. Despite being on the losing side, Pascal Siakam was lights out from deep on that day, finishing with 36 points and eight triples.
